RE: Marvel & DC Flooding The Market With Comics

Some casualties from The Glut of Comics Past

Hasn't this always kinda happened – the "circle of life" of the industry, as it were? Flood, boom, bust, repeat?

I don't care if you're a major publisher or not, the real key is striking a chord with the modern zeitgeist. Two buddies with a Xerox machine can do that. But it takes 1) A real sense of what is important to people nowadays and 2) a pair of balls.

You can't create that sort of magic in a boardroom. By its very nature, such projects find themselves in conflict with the ultimate needs of the corporate machine, which rarely wants to take a chance. That sort of magic largely happens by accident, with projects that have managed to slip by management unnoticed and, by some miracle, make it to the stands. Then they get hailed as a "genius" – and then, realizing they have a great hit on their hands, the publisher milks it for all its worth with dozens of sequels and spinoffs and similar projects. That's the comic book Circle of Life. And that's largely the entertainment industry's Circle of Life.

Personally, I don't want to spend money reading about some old superhero that the writer idolized when he was 11. I've read that story in everything from "Jimmy Corrigan, Smartest Boy On Earth" to "JSA." Give me something new. I don't want to read another Kirby riff, though Kirby was of course awesome. I don't want to read another riff off of a teenage superhero who gets special powers and learns that with great power comes great responsibility. "Remember those great Sunday Comics?" Yeah, I remember them from when I was a kid, and I've been trying to get out of the burden of childhood memory & nostalgia for years. Give me something else. Give me something new.

So to me, all other business strategies take a back seat to actually publishing that book or series that seizes that zeitgeist and sets the world on fire. That's the only way the industry actually grows and develops:

Accidental Awesomeness --> Sequels and Spinoffs --> Glut

And then:

Glut --> Bust --> Accidental Awesomeness (allowed because management isn't really paying too close attention, they're busy licking their wounds)

Stir, repeat.

Death To "New Comics Day?"

Marc Mason at Comics Waiting Room proposes an end to "New Comic Day." He opines that having the focus on one "big" day hurts sales at comic retailers for the rest of the week; the collective fanboy zeitgest blows their wad on Wednesday, as it were.

While I agree that retailers need to see past the current model of the monthly "floppy" and think of other strategies, purposely ending such an entrenched buying ritual at this juncture would be devastating for the industry.

I do think one day we will see the end of "new comic day." But I see it more as a slow fade-out over time; not so much a conscious ending as a lessening and lessening in relevance. As Marc writes in his column:

"...after having been a slave to it as a younger man, and keeping in touch with it at least tangentially through this past winter, it was very shocking to me that it took me that long to realize I had been away that long, and even more shocking to realize that I didn’t care and didn’t miss it."

Comics Recession "Doomsday" Scenarios

Get it?

We brought this up over brunch:

What if we had a "doomsday" scenario in the industry and Diamond suddenly folded (or massively scaled back)?

Would this interrupt the shipping of comics until it was all sorted out? Or are there backup plans?

Would the major players go through other, separate distributors to get their comics distributed & shipped? Like DC would turn to Random House for example?

When I was working at a comic shop in the early 1990s, I think we had several comic book distributors sending us books (though Diamond was the main one). Would things go back to this arrangement?

And would such an event rapidly accelerate the mainstream comic book industry's turn to digital? And if that is the case, what happens to the retailers?

One of the conclusions we made was that paper comics will always exist, but there will be a greater "prestige" factor to them. You own a "hard copy" of a comic book or collected edition/graphic novel because you really really like the content. Comics (the pamphlets, at any rate) become less "temporary." The product themselves become more elaborate with higher production values. Card stock covers. Higher-quality of design. And the prices rise on individual issues.

I see this approach extending out to all "hard copy" media. Like DVDs. The casual movie fan will probably choose to stream/download their movies in several years, not purchase them (unless the price point was really low). But the film buff will still want to buy collector's editions of DVDs. These will be more elaborate DVDs -- think Criterion Collection. And you wouldn't just get a DVD -- you'd get a book, film cels, collectible posters, etc. -- all in one package.

In the same way, paper comics would need these bells and whistles too. "Why should I buy this comic for $4-5 when I can download it for $1?" Well, because you get all this other stuff. Plus, you *love* this title, the creative team, the characters, and this is a way of tangibly keeping a piece of them.

Of course, when bells and whistles are packed in, you could in theory rise the price quite a bit.

Now, if the comic book industry can continue to build new readership through outreach and movie/TV/video-game adaptations, this would increase the amount of fans, which would send more of them to the direct market to spend $9.99 on "World of Superman" #1, a slim but trade-paperback formatted monthly/bimonthly book of all-new content that has a supplemental DVD packed in with a new episode of some cool Superman-related thing you can't get anywhere else. (I totally made up that comic, btw, just so there is no confusion)

So to save the Direct Market, then, you need more Fans and less casual readers (because the casual reader is more likely to opt to download). Does this defeat the "placing comics in Wal-Mart & supermarkets" theory of increasing readership? The idea that you make the comics super-accessible so they become something casual that everybody reads -- like newspapers?

I think you need to increase the readership by using these markets, but only with cheap digest-sized collections of the best and most new-reader friendly material. In terms of a $3-4 22-page comics in Wal-Mart enticing new readers? No way. That's too much money for a non-fan/reader-new-to-comics to spend on an unknown quantity. That boat has sailed.

I mean, I buy the paper edition of The New York Times every once in a while. It's kinda pricy, all things considered (considering I can most of this stuff free online). I don't buy it because I need to. I buy it as a luxury for a long train ride. I buy it for the brand. I buy it because I'm a "fan." Similarly, if I buy a copy of Fangoria -- which I think is up to around $8 an issue now -- I do so because I'm a fan. There is no way in hell I would drop anything more than $5 for any magazine unless I *loved* it.

Anyway, though the title of my post included the word "Doomsday," I do not see an apocalyptic end of the comic book, or paper comics, or comic book retailers. But I do see a change of focus. And I do think that you will see a drop-off in overall customers due to the digital downloads. The lost revenue from these customers might be made up by the higher-priced "collector" comics, and by increasing the # of fans through outreach and adaptations in other media. And, of course, there is the Ancillary Merchandise. Toys. Posters. T-shirts. Statues. Magnets. Etc. You can't digitize that stuff.

The Wizard Of Sales

Marvel's Wonderful Wizard of Oz #1 is sold out of Diamond -- as well as my local NYC comic book store.

Hey, all-ages comics are supposed to sell poorly! Remember? "Comics aren't for kids anymore."

Wonderful Wizard of Oz seemingly had everything "against" it (according to conventional wisdom):
1) All-ages book
2) Non-superhero book
3) Female protagonist
4) "Classics" adaptation

So why did the comic book succeed?

1) Parents are hungering for appropriate comic book entertainment for their children.
2) Amazing art.
3) Marvel's giveaway "sketchbook" promotional strategy worked.
4) Perhaps readers are looking for "happier" comic book stories?

Is this a start of a trend? If Wonderful Wizard of Oz continues to sell well, will this encourage Marvel to launch similar projects?

And who is the audience of Wonderful Wizard of Oz? Who is reading this comic book? What is the gender breakdown of the readership? The age of readers? How many issues were bought for other people?

Does Dorothy Gale qualify as a "superheroine?"

The Top Ten Best-Selling Comics of 2008

1 Secret Invasion #1 (Marvel)
2 Secret Invasion #2 (Marvel)
3 Secret Invasion #3 (Marvel)
4 Secret Invasion #4 (Marvel)
5 Secret Invasion #5 (Marvel)
6 Secret Invasion #6 (Marvel)
7 Uncanny X-Men #500 (Marvel)
8 Secret Invasion #7 (Marvel)
9 Final Crisis #1 (DC)
10 Secret Invasion #8 (Marvel)

article

Keep Blue Beetle Going And Cancel Titans Instead

Like that will actually happen. More likely, Blue Beetle (which just got canceled) gets rolled into Teen Titans, while Titans limps along until a new "reboot" ("mea culpa, the new book sucked but we've got this awesome direction now, disregard everything else, we've got it right now").

You know, I'm looking up all the comics that inspired me as a kid, and I just bought the Wolfman/Perez "Terror Of Trigon" Teen Titans trade. The stuff is so good it actually hurts. The detail George Perez put into composing even one panel was mind-boggling. I didn't know half the back story in that arc but Marv Wolfman made it so I understood what was going on anyway, and I still cared about the characters. That arc was so special, it was like an event -- but it wasn't an event, they were just regular issues.


I see that a lot with the old trades I buy. The stories seem so special and well-done that they seem like events. But they were monthlies. The comic creators involved -- and most likely the marketing teams -- didn't act like the book was god's gift to humanity, "instant collector's items." They were just doing their job; they were just comics, created to inspire and entertain.

What went wrong? Did the "star" system of comic creators starting in the late 80s/early 90s make people complacent, even lazy? Did the quality of the editors go down? Did some editors become "afraid" to properly edit "star" books and "star" creators (I've see this happen)?


Or is it a case like in the 1990s where books like Titans appeal to the broad base, regardless of quality, and that's good enough? Whereas a critically acclaimed book like Blue Beetle just doesn't pull in the numbers, doesn't appeal to that broad base, and so is canceled? And if that's the case, does the buck stop (literally) not with the editors or the creators but with the public?

Or, taking into account the comparative direct market shares for DC and Marvel, has that already been decided, and is the easy-to-please "lowest common denominator" audience not so much the public as Time Warner itself?

September Comics Sales: Commentary

Here is the official list, for reference.

Thoughts:

* Secret Invasion is still #1, with both Avengers books, which closely tie in with the event, at #3 and #5.

* Does Final Crisis skipping a month hurt this title and the event as a whole? Or is there enough FC product out to give the series a sense of continuity?

* I would really like to pin-point the appeal of All-Star Batman & Robin, which is one of the few DC books to make the Top 20 at #4. Is it the Frank Miller/Jim Lee combined name cachet? Or the fact that it is a Batman book that isn't continuity-heavy? Is this book, such as it is, a template for how other successful DC books should be?

* Marvel pseudo-reboots of Hulk, Iron Man, and Amazing Spider-Man still do quite well. Is this a viable strategy for a publisher -- to periodically just come up with a fresh new take on the characters and just push ahead?


* In line with the previous comment, should DC just start doing the same thing with a bunch of their titles? I mean -- for reals, not as a last-minute shuffle.

* I mean my God -- look at the numbers for a book like The Flash -- at #82. This book should be Iron Man/Thor level in sales for DC, if not Captain America level. Because that's how key and iconic this character is to the DCU. It should at least do as well as Green Lantern.

* And Green Arrow -- I mean, that character is classic & edgy & would totally appeal to today's reader -- he even is a semi-regular on TV's "Smallville." Yet the comic is at #85. That's horrible, horrible numbers for a property that is so viable & important.


The formula (and I know I have written this before, so please bear with me):

1. Take your second-tier & some of your third-tier books and apply the Top 50 Test on them.

2. Top 50 Test: are these books starring your best, most licensable intellectual property making it to the top 50? If not: overhaul them.

3. Get top writers & artists for each second tier/third tier book. Carefully talent search for these titles. Pick teams that are willing/likely to stay for at least two complete arcs (if not a full year). <---- this part most important.

4. If the title had been hopelessly mired in bad creative decisions/fill-ins, cancel it outright & start from scratch.

Marvel has applied this philosophy over and over and over again, to good results. Many years ago, when I was just a whelp collecting comics, books like Thor & Fantastic Four and Iron Man were considered "crap" -- all we wanted were "X-Titles" and Spider-Man. But now these second & third tier books are all doing great. This is a formula that works.

I mean, again -- Green Arrow! This should be DC's Iron Man -- there should be a movie out already.

And this is not a slam -- this is a kindness. Trying to figure out what would sell best is a kindness, far more so than a room full of "yes men." A room full of "yes men" can yes you right into bankruptcy. Ask the president.

What Makes A Top Ten Book?

Here are the top ten comic books for July, according to Diamond Comic Distributors:

175,459 Secret Invasion #4

151,955 Uncanny X-Men #500

110,724 Astonishing X-Men #25

108,751 New Avengers #43

103,213 Batman #678

96,252 Mighty Avengers #16

89,062 Wolverine #67

83,784 Thor #10

82,953 Justice League o/America #23

82,031 Buffy the Vampire Slayer #16

My question? What makes a Top 10 comic book?

Or screw that, what makes a 100,000+ selling comic book???

Secret Invasion: Sure it's an event -- but it also has had national publicity. You could say ditto for Batman, because of the movie.

Astonishing X-Men & BTVS: The Whedon connection.

Big brands: JLA, Batman, X-Men, Avengers, Wolverine.

Most impressive: Thor.

See, a book like Thor had to fight to get in the Top Ten. You might say that X-Men & JLA are "naturals" -- big brands who you'd might expect to be on the sales charts.

But as cool as Thor is, that' s a book that traditionally -- with the possible exception of the Simonson years -- was not a "top tier" book.

That book had to be "built" into a top book.

Can any property be "built" and prepared in such a manner?

Is it that there are no mediocre-selling properties -- just mediocre presentation?

Also: is the answer just more spin-offs?

Would DC increase its slice of the pie by just adding another Batman title? A pseudo-movie spinoff, perhaps? Call it Dark Knight? (forgive me if they already have one & I didn't realize it)

Like Invincible Iron Man, it would have stylistic elements from the movie, tying the film into it in a way (though not really, continuity-wise).

Watchmen spinoff? Is that even possible?

Comics: The World That Is Coming!

Well, dears, I've got a lot on my plate today & I'm going to have to interrupt my usual "Fangirl Fridays" for a little something I wrote about the future o' comics:

For one of my freelance jobs I've been reading nothing but articles on how the "digital revolution" is revolutionizing media. And how Wall Street itself is putting the squeeze on mega-corporations like Time Warner & NewsCorp to break-up or downsize their other sectors in favor of beefing up their online presence & capabilities.

Of course, the important question is:

How Does This Effect Comic Books?

How Comics Make Money Today

I just read in "Alter Ego" magazine that the DC comic book "Captain Carrot" sold 100,000 copies on a good day. Now only the hottest, most heavily-hyped comics reach that number.

At DC I remember some staffers referring to our editorial department as the "research and development" wing of Time Warner's entertainment division. This was not news to me. That's how management referred to Acclaim Comics in relation to its parent company several years before.

Any smart comics publisher, big or small, realizes that you cannot get rich off of comics alone. That without the licensing, the movie deals, etc., you aren't going to make the big bucks that will allow you to quit your day job or please your corporate parent.

But now there are some additional complicating factors.


Free Comics On The Internet

In the future there is going to be a heck of a lot more webcomics offered both by indies and the big players. In fact, for smaller publishers, webcomics might become the necessary initial route. But larger companies like DC & Marvel might also more heavily use the digital medium to distribute their titles.

Now, according to standard media analysis, the pay-for-read paradigm for online newspapers and so forth is dead. In order to compete, places like The New York Times & CNN must offer their news for free on the Internet.

I know Scott McCloud has written about "micropayments" in conjunction with webcomics but I really think that the future of comics online is free access.

So I might extend that and say that the future of comic books period is largely online and for free.

Then there is the matter of illegal downloads of comic books. Illegal downloads in general have reduced the worth of media across the board -- music, movies/TV, etc. A whole generation is growing up with the sense of entitlement that their entertainment media must be available to them free to download. I don't see this attitude changing; I think we've lost the "war" on this one.

So here is another "crazy" statement, take it as you will --

The future of media in general will largely be product offered for free on the Internet.


Survival of the Awesomest

So how will these companies make their money?

Advertising, licensing, movies, etc blah blah blah. AND pricey "collector's editions" for the best stuff -- trade paperbacks, hardcovers, slipcase editions, omnibuses, etc.

So what product thrives in this new environment?

THE BEST STUFF.

In the new online comic book marketplace, only the most original, thought-provoking awesome stuff will be able to distract readers from the billions of choices on the Net and garner the hits & exposure necessary to make money.

That's why there is a "gold rush" of sorts with the comic companies now to acquire intellectual properties, etc. -- an unheard-of call for submissions.

Which means that the market currently favors the INNOVATOR & the GENIUS rather than those who tow the same line with "safe," so-called "marketable" comics.

Which means that the sort of raving geniuses you see on webcomic sites like ACT-I-VATE and so forth are the ones who are going to benefit the most, who are going to be approached by agents and publishers and be the next "rock stars" of the industry.


Forecast For The Future

1. Less superhero titles from the major companies.

2. Stronger push by the majors to acquire "quirky" genius-level talent from indies & webcomics.

3. More inexpensive "Essentials/Showcase" reprints done on cheap paper.

4. Conversely, less expensive "Archive Edition" books. (though more ultra-expensive "prestige" editions of very popular arcs & stories).

5. Conversely, more aggressive "archives on DVD" programs. You'll probably start seeing a spike in this late '08/early '09.

6. The publishing wing of Time Warner breaking-off from the main company.

7. The DC "Zuda" initiative mutating from an "American Idol"-type contest to a standard online vehicle for both new & established titles. In time, Zuda will simply be an important part of mainstream DC's content delivery system.

8. Marvel developing its own webcomic site.

9. Everybody else developing their own webcomic sites.

10. DC & Marvel branching out into paid comic subscription services for mobile phones/PDAs/MP3s.

11. A temporary "gold rush" hysteria hitting comics similar to the Dot Com craze in the 90s. There will be a lot of people with big talk of venture capital, the millions that are going to be made off of webcomics & mobile. A lot of IPs acquired, talent searches, etc.

12. When DC & Marvel find their "level" in the webcomic/mobile phone world, you will then see an implosion where a lot of smaller, newer "venture capital"-type publishers might spontaneously combust.

13. More established book publishers will have "indie"/manga graphic novel wings, giving new and edgy artists options so they don't have to necessarily turn to mainstream styles and companies. The Big Two, DC & Marvel, will furiously compete with these book publishers for talent & have similar graphic novel programs.

14. A tremendous increase in diversity in comic creators, and diversity in genres.

15. More mandatory "synergy" between the publishers and movie/TV adaptations of their books.

16. "Rebooted"/"ultimized" versions of traditional comic book characters for online consumption by new readers.

17. And, within 10 years: a significant amount of DC & Marvel's monthly comic output being run exclusively on the Internet. Leading to the breakdown of the "monthly" format in favor of the weekly or even daily.

You know, when I see the postmodernist chaos that is "Countdown" or various permutations of the "Marvel Zombies" meme, I can't help but interpret it as an unconscious acknowledgement of this fundamental breakdown of "old media" & "old comics" to make way for...

THE WORLD THAT IS COMING!