Hulu Beats YouTube: "Old Media Strikes Back"

"Old Media Strikes Back" -- not my headline, but that of Newsweek's, in a post dated 2/21/09.

Newsweek's sub-heading:

"Hulu, founded by NBC and Fox, has become a better moneymaker than Web darling YouTube. The moral: better content wins."

My blog, a week ago:

"Authoritative vs. "Amateur" is the general crux of the mainstream media companies's...bid for pay-based content."

"The media companies are going to push "Authoritative" vs. "Amateur" within two years."

Again: my point is not that the YouTubes and Wikipedias of the world are amateur. My point is: big media will start to portray them as such though news reports and advertising.

From the Newsweek piece:

"Unlike YouTube, Hulu had legal access to great content—shows from NBC, Fox and others. And it had great technology—a clean, simple user interface and a smart search engine. Today, just one year after its launch, Hulu has gained the upper hand. "The empire is striking back," says Arash Amel, analyst for researcher Screen Digest. " (emphasis mine)

Now, the point can be made from reading the article that Hulu.com is making great money from their online advertising -- they are making money from *free content*.

But when we look closer at the advertising on Hulu -- it's resembling more and more traditional TV advertising!

"Hulu's team is trying new approaches to advertising that they hope will be more palatable to viewers, and more effective as well. One idea: a viewer can choose to see ads interspersed throughout a show, or can watch a single long advertisement up front. (But either way you can't skip through the ads.) Another example: a carmaker lets the viewer choose to see an ad for a pickup truck, a crossover SUV or a sports car—so the viewer gains some control, and the advertiser doesn't waste a pickup-truck ad on someone who wouldn't be caught dead in one."

Yes, it's placed differently. Yes, it's more "targeted" (which the media companies LOVE). But it's there, and you can't watch your Hulu show without watching it. Just like network TV. We've come full circle "This show brought to you by Lexus."

But then, can't the producers of independent videos -- like the ones on YouTube, for instance -- get these sweet ad deals too?

Big Media news outlet Newsweek pooh-poohs this idea:

"YouTube has lots of content, but from the perspective of advertisers much of it is utterly worthless. Nobody wants to tout their brand amid user-generated videos that could turn out to be almost anything..."

Yeah, nobody wants to see *amateur* stuff, the article is saying. They want to see "The Office." Right?

Newsweek:

"Fun as it may be to watch someone's kitten playing with a piece of string, last night's episode of "The Office" makes for a more compelling experience."

Sure, because...all the clips on YouTube are just kittens playing with string, right? Sure.

One more interesting tid-bit. Again, from the Newsweek piece:

"Hulu insists it's not really competing with YouTube. In fact, its real victim might be cable companies. Why pay $100 per month for a cable subscription when you can get so much great stuff online at no cost?"

And again, from my blog:

"I always told the BF that once another Hulu-type streaming video service comes out, we were going to have to cancel the cable."

"We have media media media (inexpensive media) coming out off our butts. Which is awesome. Sucks to be the cable companies, though."

Next up? Look for sites like Hulu creating separate "premium" channels that you have to subscribe to. Just like the traditional cable model. Full circle.

How The Mainstream Media Gets Its Groove Back

"I get email. Some of them ask for cartoons. Like this one:

I wish to add your cartoon to a Powerpoint presentation.

OK. I write back:

Hey, that's great that you would like to use my cartoon. My fee is $20 per image, per presentation. I accept Paypal and credit cards.

Oops. That's not at all what this person had in mind:

Unfortunately I shall not use your cartoon if it means paying for it. I thought I would just try and do things by the copyright book. Thanks anyway."

-- cartoonist Mike Lynch

We seem to be turning into a society of "free" media. Music, movies, comics, news -- we are increasingly expecting to get these things, via Internet, for free. Like webcomics. I can't picture an arrangement in which significant masses of people pay for webcomics -- unless you got the best 2% of all webcomics on one site. Other than that, I don't see people dropping money for them, unless they make donations. It's not about quality. It's just that people expect to get these things for free. We've been trained this way.

Some say that advertising revenue will make the money. I am telling you from experience within the online media industry -- unless you have a HUGELY popular site/blog/content, you will not be able to support a company on this revenue. Hell, even Facebook is having problems doing this.

Then there is the idea that loyal fans of a webcomic or site will send in enough donations to support it. I believe that can happen, but can you support your family on it? Maybe, maybe not. Still not a solution for a media company.

Then there is the selling of hard-copies and various memorabilia. And/or utilizing the intellectual property in your free webcomic to inspire ventures in other media. These are awesome things. If they happen.

But what can the various traditional media outlets out there do as an overall game plan? What can the freelance cartoonist/comic book person do? How do you make money? Real money? Game-plan sort of money? Health insurance sort of money? Raising a child sort of money? Saving for retirement sort of money? Supporting five floors of employees sort of money?

Yes, it looks like the switch is on from paper to digital. But are people willing to pay for this digital media? For the most part -- no. People are not willing to pay for it, unless you give them a damn good reason to.

Damn Good Reasons To:

1) If I was DC or Marvel (or any other media company), I'd pinpoint what the top 5% webcomics are. Offer those web cartoonists competitive exclusive distribution deals that includes a health insurance component. Then make a subscription-based site offset by sales of hard copies and merchandise.

2) Want to compete with Wikipedia with a subscription-based model? Have a damn good online encyclopedia/reference center, with the top names in academics, punditry, etc. Stress the authoritativeness of your reference site. If I was giving advice to a company like Time Warner, News Corp, Microsoft, etc on how to make this model work, this authoritative aspect would have to be stressed -- because it's the only real selling point they would have versus a free model.

3) Authoritative vs. "Amateur" is the general crux of the mainstream media companies's (and professional writers's/cartoonists's/artists's) bid for pay-based content. It is the only way. I'm not defining "amateur." I'm not saying looking at things with this dichotomy is "right." I'm just playing devil's advocate and trending this out. Look at all the media you consume online -- news, TV, comics, blogs, etc. Now, figure out how much would you actually pay for if you had to.

4) The media companies are going to push "Authoritative" vs. "Amateur" within two years. Look for an all-out assault on the authority of blogs that are not connected with one media group or another. Look for the top-of-the-top independent blogs to get bought up by media companies. Look for an all-out assault on the credibility of Wikipedia.

5) Important point: in order for this plan by mainstream media to work, it is crucial that most of the popular webcomics, blogs, sites, news sources, social networks, services, etc be absorbed into the corporation. That may all sound as scary as shit. But it's likely that it's the way things are going to go down. The fire under everybody's asses in this economy will help it along.

6) And of course there is the whole net neutrality thingie-wingie. Look for the corporations to help move this along, to their advantage. Look for cable TV-like "packages" of web content that you pay for monthly.

Within five years, I think everything I've just wrote will come to pass. I'm not saying it's right. I'm not saying it will or will not encourage creativity. I'm just saying this is likely the scenario. And if the mainstream media does not start thinking along these lines, or if they think they can survive long-term by providing nothing but free online content (when the market for paper shrinks more every day), they will collapse. And then we will be more a nation of independent contractors, mini-media moguls. Micro-payments, donations, T-shirts. Which may or may not be better.

And please don't think that when I talk about the best blogs being bought up by corporations, I think I should be on that list. I'm realistic. Believe me, if I have thought through this topic to the extent I have on this post, I have seen what my "place" is in this overall landscape. To keep the personal OS blog, sure. But I do not think this blog -- in its current form -- has the broad (excuse pun) appeal to be useful to a big media concern.

Now, the Occasional Superheroine character itself might -- and if I choose to do more with that, something good might come out of it. And I think I can transfer my blogging skills to a blog with more of a broad reach -- either by spearheading it or working behind-the-scenes.

The OS is not journalism. The OS is just a doorway to talk to you all. And that's enough.

But the idea of the mid-level to low-level blog on a certain topic that will GENERATE TONS OF AD REVENUE and so forth -- no.

The idea of a web-based concern that has lots of overhead but is generating no income but one day it will sometime in the future -- no.

Me, I'm looking into taking some solid journalism courses and brushing up on my grammar. Because in order to compete in online media within two years, that's what you're going to need.

***Comments now closed to prevent the inevitable pissing match that I don't have the time for. If you don't agree with me, fine. I'm totally okay with us meeting up in two years -- hell, ONE year -- and compare notes. I look forward to it.

New York Comic Con 09: Doing The Time Warp

Jimmy Olsen gets the scoop on the future of the comic book industry

I suspect to many in this strange uncertain time, New York Comic Con was a welcome escape from reality. Such as it was for me, and mostly how I used the event. I did more "wandering on my own, losing myself in dollar bins" than I have in the last three years. I bought up all the comics of my youth. I opened up these comics and immediately familiar panels, which I haven't viewed in 20 years, stood out. It's funny how these random panels stick in your memory.

I went to a bar, and one of my favorite former bosses from my DC days got up with his crew to leave -- providing my friends with a space. We sat down, and after an hour a former boss from Acclaim -- who always reminded me of that same guy from DC who just left -- sat down and started talking to us. It was surreal. Full circle. Another friend commented that being at NYCC was like having his life flash before his eyes -- people from so many different eras of his life, his career.

Complicating things was the fact that I had moments where I still thought that my late step-dad was still somewhere, living in his home at NYC or Cape Cod. That it was only a temporary absence. It's like you know absolutely that he's gone, but you distract yourself with the convention and talking with your friends, and everything seems normal. And him being around is part of that normal. But he's gone. I managed to process a lot of my feelings about that this weekend -- but perhaps it was more distraction, less process. I don't know.

Batman & Hellboy wait their turn

I also had a number of freelancers tell me that they missed my opinion pieces (a.k.a. muckraking) regarding the industry, as they felt it provided a useful service. This made me feel flattered and also kinda guilty for not writing that stuff anymore (or, at least, not writing it the way I did).

But is punditry truly a force of real change in the comic book industry? In terms of some of the most shocking things I have personally witnessed or heard about -- not as much as I thought it was. That doesn't mean that these things shouldn't be talked about online. But I think the real change -- the shakeups -- are coming from the economy and the move to digital. These changes are like a monolith glacier that is scraping across the landscape of the comic book industry. I feel like a little bean in comparison.

The sea change cannot be overestimated. It is hard for me to concentrate on who slept with who or who screwed who over in the face of this massive change. I watch and track Change, with all its attendant horribleness and wonder, with the awe and focus of an intense 10-year-old with Asperger's Syndrome.

Hordes of unemployed, angry Jedi storm the floor

Some complained about NYCC feeling a little "flat." Not a lot of OMFG moments, stuff to be revved up about. That's because this is the calm before the tsunami. It's not going to be a "bad" tsunami, in terms of being "evil." It's a tsunami of change. To say "Dan DiDio this and that" is irrelevant at this point. Two years from now, and this landscape will be completely altered. And in the shake-up, some will fall away and other, newer people will come out of seemingly nowhere and rise to the top. It's anybody's game at this point. It's not the time for pessimism, but for asking: "where do I fit within all of this?"

This is the time, that if you're smart, you can really build something for yourself. It is not Armageddon, though I know that term has been passed around as of late.

But change can be very painful, and those feelings need to be processed. And sometimes, there needs to be distraction, simple joys, good times with friends, etc. Seeing so many segments of my life on display at NYCC, blending, colliding, having drinks with each other, slinking away around corners or running up to me from across a crowded convention floor...I feel as if I am at a nexus-point in my life, in my career. And I feel the industry is at a similar place.

Comics: The World That Is Coming!

Well, dears, I've got a lot on my plate today & I'm going to have to interrupt my usual "Fangirl Fridays" for a little something I wrote about the future o' comics:

For one of my freelance jobs I've been reading nothing but articles on how the "digital revolution" is revolutionizing media. And how Wall Street itself is putting the squeeze on mega-corporations like Time Warner & NewsCorp to break-up or downsize their other sectors in favor of beefing up their online presence & capabilities.

Of course, the important question is:

How Does This Effect Comic Books?

How Comics Make Money Today

I just read in "Alter Ego" magazine that the DC comic book "Captain Carrot" sold 100,000 copies on a good day. Now only the hottest, most heavily-hyped comics reach that number.

At DC I remember some staffers referring to our editorial department as the "research and development" wing of Time Warner's entertainment division. This was not news to me. That's how management referred to Acclaim Comics in relation to its parent company several years before.

Any smart comics publisher, big or small, realizes that you cannot get rich off of comics alone. That without the licensing, the movie deals, etc., you aren't going to make the big bucks that will allow you to quit your day job or please your corporate parent.

But now there are some additional complicating factors.


Free Comics On The Internet

In the future there is going to be a heck of a lot more webcomics offered both by indies and the big players. In fact, for smaller publishers, webcomics might become the necessary initial route. But larger companies like DC & Marvel might also more heavily use the digital medium to distribute their titles.

Now, according to standard media analysis, the pay-for-read paradigm for online newspapers and so forth is dead. In order to compete, places like The New York Times & CNN must offer their news for free on the Internet.

I know Scott McCloud has written about "micropayments" in conjunction with webcomics but I really think that the future of comics online is free access.

So I might extend that and say that the future of comic books period is largely online and for free.

Then there is the matter of illegal downloads of comic books. Illegal downloads in general have reduced the worth of media across the board -- music, movies/TV, etc. A whole generation is growing up with the sense of entitlement that their entertainment media must be available to them free to download. I don't see this attitude changing; I think we've lost the "war" on this one.

So here is another "crazy" statement, take it as you will --

The future of media in general will largely be product offered for free on the Internet.


Survival of the Awesomest

So how will these companies make their money?

Advertising, licensing, movies, etc blah blah blah. AND pricey "collector's editions" for the best stuff -- trade paperbacks, hardcovers, slipcase editions, omnibuses, etc.

So what product thrives in this new environment?

THE BEST STUFF.

In the new online comic book marketplace, only the most original, thought-provoking awesome stuff will be able to distract readers from the billions of choices on the Net and garner the hits & exposure necessary to make money.

That's why there is a "gold rush" of sorts with the comic companies now to acquire intellectual properties, etc. -- an unheard-of call for submissions.

Which means that the market currently favors the INNOVATOR & the GENIUS rather than those who tow the same line with "safe," so-called "marketable" comics.

Which means that the sort of raving geniuses you see on webcomic sites like ACT-I-VATE and so forth are the ones who are going to benefit the most, who are going to be approached by agents and publishers and be the next "rock stars" of the industry.


Forecast For The Future

1. Less superhero titles from the major companies.

2. Stronger push by the majors to acquire "quirky" genius-level talent from indies & webcomics.

3. More inexpensive "Essentials/Showcase" reprints done on cheap paper.

4. Conversely, less expensive "Archive Edition" books. (though more ultra-expensive "prestige" editions of very popular arcs & stories).

5. Conversely, more aggressive "archives on DVD" programs. You'll probably start seeing a spike in this late '08/early '09.

6. The publishing wing of Time Warner breaking-off from the main company.

7. The DC "Zuda" initiative mutating from an "American Idol"-type contest to a standard online vehicle for both new & established titles. In time, Zuda will simply be an important part of mainstream DC's content delivery system.

8. Marvel developing its own webcomic site.

9. Everybody else developing their own webcomic sites.

10. DC & Marvel branching out into paid comic subscription services for mobile phones/PDAs/MP3s.

11. A temporary "gold rush" hysteria hitting comics similar to the Dot Com craze in the 90s. There will be a lot of people with big talk of venture capital, the millions that are going to be made off of webcomics & mobile. A lot of IPs acquired, talent searches, etc.

12. When DC & Marvel find their "level" in the webcomic/mobile phone world, you will then see an implosion where a lot of smaller, newer "venture capital"-type publishers might spontaneously combust.

13. More established book publishers will have "indie"/manga graphic novel wings, giving new and edgy artists options so they don't have to necessarily turn to mainstream styles and companies. The Big Two, DC & Marvel, will furiously compete with these book publishers for talent & have similar graphic novel programs.

14. A tremendous increase in diversity in comic creators, and diversity in genres.

15. More mandatory "synergy" between the publishers and movie/TV adaptations of their books.

16. "Rebooted"/"ultimized" versions of traditional comic book characters for online consumption by new readers.

17. And, within 10 years: a significant amount of DC & Marvel's monthly comic output being run exclusively on the Internet. Leading to the breakdown of the "monthly" format in favor of the weekly or even daily.

You know, when I see the postmodernist chaos that is "Countdown" or various permutations of the "Marvel Zombies" meme, I can't help but interpret it as an unconscious acknowledgement of this fundamental breakdown of "old media" & "old comics" to make way for...

THE WORLD THAT IS COMING!